The Impact of Rising Lumber Prices on the U.S. Housing Market

0:00 - 2:51 Introduction

Steve Martinez, a construction business owner in Boise, Idaho, highlights the impact of volatile lumber prices on his industry. In April 2025, softwood lumber prices rose 23% compared to the previous year, causing stock declines for major homebuilders. The U.S. relies heavily on Canadian softwood lumber, which accounts for 85% of imports. As the Trump administration explores increasing tariffs on Canadian lumber to boost domestic production, rising prices are already affecting homeownership, with many Americans unable to afford median-priced homes.

2:52 - 5:23 Chapter 1. Home construction

Tradewinds General Contracting faces challenges from fluctuating material costs. The construction of new homes relies heavily on softwood lumber, which constitutes a significant portion of total construction costs. Builders are struggling to manage fixed-price contracts amid rising prices and supply shortages. Tariffs on materials from China also add to the cost pressures. This situation makes it increasingly difficult to keep homes affordable, as various construction components are affected.

5:24 - 9:02 Chapter 2. U.S. lumber production

Despite having vast forest resources, the U.S. is experiencing a lumber shortage. Softwood production has seen a slight increase, but regulatory challenges and pandemic-related price spikes have complicated the situation. Canadian lumber imports have been vital for the U.S. market, but a long-standing trade dispute exacerbates tensions. Experts estimate it could take five years for the U.S. to match Canadian lumber output, leaving builders at the mercy of price volatility.

9:03 - 11:31 Chapter 3. What’s next?

The lumber industry faces a labor crisis, with more workers retiring than entering the field. Recruitment challenges are compounded by stricter immigration policies, impacting the workforce availability. Many lumber operations are relocating to the South for lower costs and fewer regulations. Despite these shifts, domestic production remains insufficient to meet demand, leading to high prices and strained supply. The industry stresses the need for regulatory reform to improve housing affordability.