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China's Rise as the World's Manufacturing Superpower

China is the world’s sole manufacturing superpower: A line sketch of the rise 🔗

The US is the world’s sole military superpower. It spends more on its military than the ten next highest spending countries combined. China is now the world’s sole manufacturing superpower. Its production exceeds that of the nine next largest manufacturers combined. This column uses the recently released 2023 update of the OECD TiVA database to paint an eight-chart portrait of China’s journey to superpower status and the asymmetric impact that its dominance has had on global supply chains.

China has established itself as the world's only manufacturing superpower, surpassing other nations in both gross production and value-added manufacturing. The OECD's 2023 TiVA database reveals that China's share of global manufacturing production is three times that of the US and significantly higher than Japan and Germany. This rapid rise to the top occurred within 15 to 20 years, contrasting sharply with the slow ascent of the US in the early 20th century. Although China's manufacturing growth has slowed recently, its dominance remains clear, particularly in exports, where its share rose from 3% in 1995 to 20% in 2020. The asymmetrical reliance in supply chains between China and G7 countries highlights the challenges of decoupling from China's manufacturing capabilities. Additionally, China's shift from simple manufacturing to more sophisticated sectors demonstrates its evolving industrial landscape.

What is China's current share of global manufacturing production?

China's share of global manufacturing production is approximately 35%, which is three times that of the US.

How has China's manufacturing sector evolved over time?

China's manufacturing sector has shifted from basic industries like textiles in 1995 to more advanced sectors, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, by 2020.

Why is decoupling from China considered challenging?

Decoupling is difficult because G7 countries source at least 2% of their industrial inputs from China, indicating a deep interdependence in supply chains.

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